Movie Trends

Research Summary: Movie Trends — Original vs. Existing IP

This research project analyzes long-term trends in the film industry to understand whether major studios are increasingly relying on established intellectual property (IP) rather than developing original stories, and how that strategy impacts box office performance, genre success, and theatrical viability. The analysis spans nearly three decades of box office data and examines how audience preferences and risk management have shaped modern filmmaking.

Shift Toward Existing Intellectual Property

The findings show a clear upward trend in the use of existing IP, particularly from the early 2000s onward. Franchise films, sequels, reboots, and adaptations have become increasingly dominant among top-grossing theatrical releases. This shift reflects studios’ efforts to reduce financial risk by leveraging familiar characters, worlds, and brands that already have built-in audiences.

Genre Cycles and Era Dominance

Genre popularity has shifted in recognizable cycles over the last 30 years. Contemporary fiction dominated the late 1990s, followed by waves of science fiction, fantasy, kids’ films, and ultimately the rise of the superhero era between 2016 and 2020. More recently, kids’ fiction has re-emerged as a dominant genre, particularly when tied to recognizable IPs. These cycles suggest that audience tastes evolve, but familiarity remains a powerful driver of box office success.

Original vs. Existing IP Performance

Despite the growing reliance on existing IP, the data shows that original films often outperform existing IPs in box office efficiency, measured as return relative to total budget. Across genres and eras, original films frequently achieve higher profit multiples, especially in contemporary fiction, fantasy, and science fiction. An important exception is kids’ fiction, where existing IP consistently performs better due to character recognition and parental predictability.

Superhero Saturation and Audience Fatigue

Superhero films accounted for approximately 27% of major blockbusters over the past 15 years, representing roughly one in four top theatrical releases. While some superhero films perform extremely well, others show diminishing returns, suggesting signs of audience fatigue. The data indicates that not all established IP guarantees success, particularly when franchises become overextended.

Theatrical Viability

Contrary to common assumptions, theatrical releases remain remarkably stable. Average theatrical runs have held steady at around eight weeks per film, and theater counts for blockbuster releases have not declined. This suggests that high-profile theatrical releases remain a viable and important distribution channel, rather than immediately shifting to streaming platforms.

Key Insight

The findings suggest a strategic tension in modern filmmaking: while studios increasingly favor existing IP to manage risk, original films continue to demonstrate strong financial upside when quality and marketing align. Overreliance on established franchises may limit creative growth and contribute to audience fatigue, while well-executed original storytelling remains a powerful differentiator in the marketplace.

Methods

This research employed a quantitative, longitudinal analysis of theatrical film performance using publicly available industry data. The dataset includes top ten worldwide theatrical releases across five-year intervals from 1996 through 2025, allowing for trend analysis across multiple market cycles

Data Sources

• Box Office Mojo (IMDbPro)

• The Numbers
  
  

Key Variables Analyzed

• Original vs. existing intellectual property

• Genre classification

• Worldwide box office revenue

• Estimated production and marketing budgets

• Total profitability and performance multiples

• Theater counts at release

• Average theatrical run duration
  
  

Marketing budgets were estimated where direct figures were unavailable, enabling calculation of total investment and return ratios. Performance was evaluated using box office multiples, with 2.5× total budget used as a general benchmark for financial success.

Limitations

While the analysis reveals meaningful industry-level trends, several limitations should be considered:

• Focus on Top Performers
  The dataset emphasizes top-grossing films, which may underrepresent independent, mid-budget, or niche releases that follow different economic patterns.

• Estimated Marketing Budgets
  Marketing spend was calculated using industry conventions rather than studio-reported figures, which may introduce margin-of-error in profitability estimates.

• Genre Classification Subjectivity
  Some films span multiple genres, and classification decisions may simplify complex creative categories.

• Changing Market Conditions
  The study spans periods of major industry disruption, including the rise of streaming platforms and the COVID-19 pandemic. Results reflect historical trends and may evolve as distribution models continue to change.
  
  

Despite these limitations, the research provides a data-driven perspective on how risk, creativity, and profitability intersect in modern filmmaking, offering insights into why studios favor familiar IP while highlighting the continued financial potential of original storytelling